The last couple of days, I've mentioned a few changes that would take place if the North Carolina General Assembly were run by conservatives. But what would have to take place for conservatives to actually obtain that power? Actually, if there were accurate representation in Raleigh and no gerrymandering, they'd already control it since nearly 50% of all voters self-identify as "conservative" in the state. But realistically, this year, could conservatives obtain control?

According to Max Veale, just four liberals in the House and five in the Senate could shift the entire balance of power in the state. In the House, liberal Democrats have a 61-59 majority by party registration. Since there are a number of liberal Republicans there, too, a shift of 1 seat wouldn't have much effect. However, if about four seats were switched from liberal Democrats (or Republicans) to conservatives, that would make for some huge changes in the entire chamber and how it worked.

In the Senate, Democrats hold 29 seats and Republicans have 21. A switch of 5 seats here would have a large effect because there are some more conservative Democrats in that chamber (which has never, ever had a majority of Republicans in it).

The heads of the state parties strongly disagree on the effect that Jim Black and his numerous scandals and arrests and convictions of people close to him will have on the elections. The Democrat Party claims that it will not affect any voters, while the Republican Party thinks it will energize people against Black and his Democrat allies.

No one really could identify what it was that propelled the Republicans to victory in 1994 -- but it could certainly happen again this year -- in North Carolina.

Posted by: Ogre at 11:02 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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